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Despite the September wobble, equities remain above support levels established over the course of this year and are entering a period of seasonal strength. Q4 has been the S&P’s best performing quarter of the year dating back to 1950 and has produced a positive return roughly 80% of the time. As such, our Momentum Dial remains in a “Positive” position heading into the final quarter of the year.
So far, China’s central bank is taking the appropriate steps to contain the fallout from Evergrande’s difficulties, limiting the probability of a global financial contagion. In the US, the employment situation continues to improve, and manufacturing data remains strong. On balance, our Fundamental Dial remains in a “Positive” position based on the current pro-growth landscape.
Equity valuations remain under the threat of higher interest rates, which put pressure on future earnings and cause investors to be more wary of high-priced growth stocks. Since equities remain near historically high multiples, our Valuation Dial continues to show a “Negative” reading.
Our Three Dials composite reading takes a “Cautiously Optimistic” view into the fourth quarter, as strong showings in the areas of Momentum and Economic Fundamentals are balanced by Valuation concerns.
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