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Technical strength within domestic equities has been remarkably consistent in 2021, with intra-month dips finding support around the 50-day Moving Average to end the month at another record high. While overseas equities have traded slightly more range-bound recently, on balance our Momentum Dial remains in a “Positive” position at the end of July.
Advance estimates indicate that the US economy grew at a +6.5% annualized rate during Q2, a slight acceleration from the prior quarter. Meanwhile, the IMF upped their global growth forecast for 2022 by 0.5% to +4.9%, indicating that a strong fiscal response and improved public health metrics should sustain above-average growth in the near-term. While risks posed by the delta variant should not be ignored, our Fundamental Dial remains in a “Positive” position based on the current pro-growth landscape.
While US equity valuations continue to sit near record highs, corporate earnings for Q2 have been overwhelmingly positive so far, lending credence to the idea that stocks may be able to grow into these lofty price-to-earnings ratios. On the other hand, relative valuations overseas appear a bit more attractive, where post-COVID growth continues to lag. On balance, our Valuation Dial remains negative.
Our Three Dials composite reading continues to take a “Cautiously Optimistic” view, as strong showings in the areas of Momentum and Economic Fundamentals are balanced by Valuation concerns.
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