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After a double bottom during the fourth quarter of 2020, the S&P has held a strong upward trendline over the past six months for a gain of +29% during that period. While conditions may be slightly overbought in the near-term, the longer-term outlook for equities remains bullish, which leaves our Momentum Dial in a “Positive” position.
The first look at US GDP saw the economy grow at a +6.4% annualized rate during Q1 as we continue to make up for lost output from the COVID shutdowns. With key indicators such as Consumer Confidence returning to pre-COVID levels, our Fundamental Dial continues to show a “Positive” reading.
Earnings growth from the S&P has been coming in at near-record levels so far this quarter, which has fueled investor optimism and driven up equity valuations. While we share in this optimism, we remain wary of the risks presented by these lofty prices, which has our Valuation Dial in a “Negative” position at this time.
On balance, our Three Dials composite reading continues to take a “Cautiously Optimistic” view, as strong showings in the areas of Momentum and Economic Fundamentals are balanced by Valuation concerns. While we recommend moderate investors rebalance back to their strategic equity targets given the strong run-up in stock prices, our long-term investment thesis remains intact.
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