Our Approach

INVESTMENT PHILOSOPHY

The marketplace can be difficult to navigate. Anyone who has lived through the tech wreck in 2001 or the 2008 financial crisis knows that the ride can be bumpy along the way.

We developed a principled investment philosophy that guides our decisions to mitigate the risk of losses in the short-term, while producing competitive returns over the long-term. We identified three primary indicators: Momentum, Economic Fundamentals and Market Valuation. These indicators work in tandem to provide a heartbeat for the market.

Our investment philosophy is known as the Three Dials.

THREE DIALS

Momentum/Sentiment

Current Reading

Positive

2019 provided to be a resilient year for investor sentiment, as markets continually shrugged off concerns over a US trade war with China and falling manufacturing output to see new all-time highs for the domestic blue-chip stock indexes. Additionally, thanks to a strong fourth quarter rally, small- and mid-cap companies, along with international and emerging market equities, now appear poised carry this broad-based momentum into the new year. As such, our Momentum and Sentiment Dial is firmly in a “Positive” position for the time being.

Economic Fundamentals

Current Reading

Positive

Based on the most recent estimates, 2019 looks to be another solid year of economic growth in the US, with real GDP on track to increase +2.4% on the year. Looking to next year, the IMF projects +3.4% global GDP growth in 2020 thanks to strength from developing economies in Asia and Africa. While there are certainly risks on the horizon that could contribute to an unforeseen global slowdown in production, leading economic indicators are strong enough such that our Fundamental Dial shows a “Positive” reading heading into 2020.

Market Valuation

Current Reading

Negative

Valuations appear stretched across equity markets, as the fourth quarter rally in equity prices has actually coincided with a projected decline in corporate earnings. Despite a price-to-earnings ratio well above long-term averages, S&P 500 earnings are expected to see their fourth consecutive quarter of year-over-year earnings declines. Given the dissonance between rising prices and falling earnings, our Valuation Dial remains in a “Negative” position.

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