Our Approach

INVESTMENT PHILOSOPHY

The marketplace can be difficult to navigate. Anyone who has lived through the tech wreck in 2001 or the 2008 financial crisis knows that the ride can be bumpy along the way.

We developed a principled investment philosophy that guides our decisions to mitigate the risk of losses in the short-term, while producing competitive returns over the long-term. We identified three primary indicators: Momentum, Economic Fundamentals and Market Valuation. These indicators work in tandem to provide a heartbeat for the market.

Our investment philosophy is known as the Three Dials.

THREE DIALS

Momentum/Sentiment

Current Reading

Positive

In less than two full trading days from the February 28th low, the S&P 500 staged a stunning +8.2% rally to recover its long-term support level. In the aftermath of both the SARS and Zika outbreaks, markets saw double-digit declines similar to what we experienced over the last week of February, and in both cases, stocks fully recovered within a matter of months. While history never repeats itself perfectly, the most recent buying strength suggests that long-term momentum remains intact, which leaves our Sentiment Dial in a “Positive” reading for the time being.

Economic Fundamentals

Current Reading

Positive

Global economic data continues to look strong despite the plethora of negative headlines. The most recent durable goods orders showed +3.6% growth ex-defense in January, an important sign that most businesses are proceeding as normal. February’s ISM Manufacturing report pointed towards optimism despite an anticipated disruption in the global supply chain. JPMorgan notes that no US industry relies on China for more than 20% of their inputs, and high levels of current inventory should help defray any delays in production. More importantly, less than 4% of S&P 500 revenues are exposed to China directly. In sum, the economic landscape remains healthy enough that our Fundamental Dial remains in a “Positive” position.

Market Valuation

Current Reading

Negative

An overheated stock market likely contributed to the swiftness of the most recent selloff. While valuations broadly declined in February, most metrics suggest that stocks remain historically expensive. As such, our Valuation Dial remains in a “Negative” position. On balance, our Three Dials composite reading takes a “Cautiously Optimistic” stance through the end of February.

Connect