Our Approach

INVESTMENT PHILOSOPHY

The marketplace can be difficult to navigate. Anyone who has lived through the tech wreck in 2001 or the 2008 financial crisis knows that the ride can be bumpy along the way.

We developed a principled investment philosophy that guides our decisions to mitigate the risk of losses in the short-term, while producing competitive returns over the long-term. We identified three primary indicators: Momentum, Economic Fundamentals and Market Valuation. These indicators work in tandem to provide a heartbeat for the market.

Our investment philosophy is known as the Three Dials.

THREE DIALS

Momentum/Sentiment

Current Reading

Positive

July marks the fourth consecutive monthly gain for most major equity indexes. We are encouraged by improving breadth across equities, meaning that it is no longer just a handful of hot tech stocks that are spurring the market rally, in addition to declining volatility levels. As such, our Momentum Dial has returned to a “Positive” reading.

Economic Fundamentals

Current Reading

Negative

With last week’s advance GDP estimate release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, we can now say that the US experienced its worst quarter of economic growth since the Great Depression. The economy shrank by 9.5% in real terms during Q2, which amounts to a 32.9% annualized decline. While consensus estimates point to a rebound for Q3, it could be until 2022 that we see new highs in economic activity. Given the hard work that remains ahead for our economy to heal, our Fundamental Dial remains in a “Negative” position.

Market Valuation

Current Reading

Negative

Despite strong price action, the S&P is currently on track for a 36% decline in year-over-year earnings, which contributes to an ever-widening valuation gap. While earnings should recover from their low base, a material risk of a price correction remains, which keeps our Valuation Dial in a “Negative” position. On balance, our Three Dials composite reading takes a somewhat defensive view into the second half of the year. Our base case remains that the March lows established a near-term market bottom, though a degree of caution is warranted given the uncertainty around a post-COVID future.

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